Russia has seen a significant increase in oil exports through its Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2026, surpassing last year’s figures by nearly 50 percent. Approximately 20 million barrels have been shipped to Asia from July to mid-October, according to traders and data.
The NSR connects Russia’s western ports to Asian markets through icy Arctic waters, typically considered a risky and costly route. However, this year, it became more appealing due to disruptions in other key routes like the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Black Sea area, as reported by traders.
With escalating conflicts in regions such as Iran and Ukraine leading to high tanker freight rates and making U.S. crude oil less accessible to Asian refiners, there has been a surge in demand for alternatives from the Middle East and Latin America. The NSR, despite its high tariffs and the need for icebreaker assistance, has become a more cost-effective option compared to the traditional Red Sea route to Asia, according to traders.
For Russia, which controls the NSR, the route offers a secure alternative to European waters where incidents of tankers with Russian oil being detained have been reported this year.
Traders’ initial estimates indicate that the volume of Russian oil exported through the Arctic route is projected to increase by an additional five to 10 million barrels by the end of the navigation season.
Gazprom Neft, a major Russian oil company, plans to boost its NSR shipments by approximately 35 percent this year compared to 2025, according to CEO Alexander Dyukov. Additionally, Russia is expected to increase its liquid natural gas (LNG) supplies to Asia through the NSR, with a rise in LNG shipments following the introduction of Arctic LNG deliveries.
During an economic forum in Vladivostok, President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia anticipates doubling cargo turnover via the NSR to 70 million tonnes annually by the decade’s end. The recent launch of Rosneft’s Vostok Oil project in northern Russia has already contributed to the growing volumes transported through the NSR.