The El Niño weather pattern is expected to strengthen further and may reach record intensity by 2027, leading to heightened risks of extreme weather events next year, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). During a news briefing in Geneva, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that if the current trend continues, this El Niño event could surpass any observed since monitoring began, marking an unprecedented occurrence. The WMO emphasized a near 100% probability that El Niño will persist through February 2027 due to exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures, a level of certainty never before expressed by the organization.
A potent El Niño phenomenon can cause significant shifts in global precipitation and temperature patterns, potentially triggering severe weather phenomena such as typhoons. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres highlighted the remarkable expansion of the current El Niño, emphasizing the undeniable scientific evidence pointing to uncharted territory with rising global temperatures.
El Niño, characterized by periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific driven by weakened trade winds, occurs naturally every two to seven years with a typical duration of up to 12 months, affecting rainfall and drought patterns across Latin America. The ongoing El Niño event has already impacted tropical regions’ soft commodity production, leading to a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor.
The WMO predicts that the El Niño event will peak later this year but its effects are anticipated to extend into 2027, leaving elevated global temperatures in its aftermath. Saulo affirmed that the WMO is enhancing preparedness and early warning initiatives to address the situation effectively, emphasizing collaboration with UN partners and humanitarian agencies to provide essential climate intelligence for disaster management and sectors like agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.